TLDR Tech / Data
Time-Series LLMs, Explained with t0-alpha
t0-alpha is a 102M-parameter, open-weights probabilistic time-series forecaster that patches 32-step windows, uses a causal transformer, and predicts quantiles. It beats every classical baseline and lost to Seasonal Naive on only 1 of 97 task configurations. Strong zero-shot forecasting is here, but production value likely comes from calibrated probabilistic outputs, stricter leakage controls, stronger tuned baselines, and routing/ensembling rather than more transformer tweaks.
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