TLDR Tech / Crypto
The L1 Blockchain <> AI Lab Comparison
AI lab funding cycle maps onto the L1 blockchain era, with OpenAI as Bitcoin (first-mover, singular origin story), Anthropic as Ethereum (built by ex-OpenAI talent with early differentiation), and the crop of new labs as altcoins raising large rounds against research whitepapers at valuations benchmarked to the category leaders. The structural parallels extend to infrastructure: miners became neoclouds (Coreweave, Crusoe), access to chips and energy defines competitive position, and both ecosystems developed SDKs, tooling, and partnerships that raise the bar for new entrants. Applying the blockchain playbook's historical outcomes, most altlabs will either never ship or fail to achieve significance, a handful will establish a tier-2 position, and the correct investment posture in hindsight was to fund every credible team that would launch. The critical divergence: altcoins offered built-in token liquidity at or near launch, while AI labs require traditional exits via M&A, secondaries, or tenders, making liquidity a sharpening constraint as the cycle matures.
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