TLDR Tech / Crypto
The Future of Token Launches
Token launch performance data from 2023-2025 reveals systemic failure, as all 28 tokens launched at $1B+ FDV traded below listing price with median drawdown of -81%, while 85% of all tokens ended 2025 negative at -69% median. The root cause is structural – airdrop mechanics distribute tokens at zero cost basis, compounded by Sybil exploitation. Only 9.4% of tokens declining in their first week recovered by year-end, suggesting early distribution quality is deterministic for long-term outcomes. The industry must shift from open distribution to deliberate cap table construction using onchain history as filtering infrastructure.
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