TLDR Tech / Fintech
SaaS markets have crashed in 2026, but is private credit the even bigger risk?
Jason Lemkin argues the scarier story than falling SaaS multiples is the private credit system behind software buyouts: roughly $600–750b of exposure could get stressed as AI-driven seat compression and growth slowdowns hit cash flows. He points to rising distressed tech debt, “hung” loan deals, misclassified software exposure inside BDC portfolios, and a 2026 maturity wall as ingredients for a slow-moving credit squeeze that tightens refinancing, M&A, and venture debt. The piece lays out a potential doom loop where delayed marks meet redemptions in illiquid vehicles, forcing fire sales and spreading pressure beyond just software equities.
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