TLDR Tech / Crypto
Prediction Markets: They Grow Up So Fast
Prediction markets generated $51B in 2025 volume, tripling year-over-year, as Kalshi and Polymarket each approach $20B valuations and ICE committed $2B to Polymarket. Kalshi's newly secured NFA margin trading license removes the full-notional collateral requirement that previously blocked institutional participation, pushing the sector from data consumption and compliance integration toward active risk hedging by professional traders. Goldman Sachs and Tradeweb executives at Kalshi's inaugural Research Conference signaled that bulge bracket banks are actively scoping dedicated prediction market trading desks.
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