TLDR Tech / Marketing
Lost confidence
Confidence scoring in frameworks like RICE looks precise but breaks in practice. It assumes uncertainty can be modeled as probability, but most product work sits in true uncertainty where confidence is not measurable or reliably calibrated. This skews decisions toward safe, small work and away from high-upside bets. It's better to drop confidence and focus on real usage, strong customer pull, fast feedback, and observed behavior. Favor asymmetric bets and keep optionality as reality unfolds.
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