TLDR Tech / Fintech
Kalshi and the rise of macro markets
The Federal Reserve Board analyzes how Kalshi's regulated prediction markets generate real-time forecasts for macro variables and policy outcomes. Comparing Kalshi-implied expectations with surveys and traditional market measures, the authors find the platform provides high-frequency, well-calibrated density forecasts that respond meaningfully to economic news. The paper argues that these markets can serve as a complementary benchmark for measuring expectations and uncertainty.
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