TLDR Tech / Fintech
DeFi: Should prediction markets get $40B valuations?
Kalshi is reportedly raising at ~$40 billion, roughly 8x its valuation 18 months ago and about double Polymarket's ~$15 billion. The two run opposite models: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange taking ~1% per trade ($2B annualized revenue), while Polymarket spent years charging nothing and now leans on an ICE data deal and a planned token for value. Kalshi's catch is that ~65% of its volume is sports contracts a dozen states are trying to ban, so its valuation hinges on a likely Supreme Court win.
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