TLDR Tech / Crypto
Circle Selloff May Be Overdone
The post-CLARITY Act selloff in Circle misreads where yield restrictions land, falling on distributors like Coinbase rather than issuers. Coinbase earns over $900M per year in USDC revenue share, roughly half of Circle's total revenue, making it the more exposed party under rules that curtail distribution-side yield. Circle's regulated issuer status is an asset under stricter federal oversight, and the August 2026 commercial renegotiation with Coinbase means tighter rules could shift bargaining leverage toward Circle. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan projects Circle could reach a $75B valuation as the stablecoin market grows to $1.9-4 trillion by decade's end, with adoption driven by cross-border payment utility rather than yield.
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