TLDR Tech / Crypto
Bitcoin Is FINE: A Rigorous Look at the Quantum Threat
Bitcoin has two attack vectors: Shor's algorithm threatens Bitcoin's ECDSA/Schnorr signatures, while Grover's algorithm against SHA-256 mining would require roughly 3% of the Sun's energy output, a physical barrier that makes the mining threat negligible. Approximately 6.26M BTC holds exposed public keys, with 1.7M BTC in legacy P2PK outputs immediately vulnerable to a capable quantum computer and 5.2M BTC in reused or Taproot addresses requiring migration before exposure becomes critical. Expert timelines for cryptographically capable quantum computing span 10 to 40 years, and BIP-360, introducing Dilithium post-quantum signatures under a bc1z address type, merged to the BIP repo in early 2026 with a projected 7-year full deployment window. Classical cryptanalysis is the stronger reason to upgrade now.
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