AIs can now often do massive easy-to-verify SWE tasks and I've updated towards shorter timelines

2026-04-07

The likelihood of full AI R&D automation by late 2028 has nearly doubled, driven by AI's strong performance in routine, easily verifiable software engineering tasks. Since much of AI R&D involves these types of tasks, AI's ability to complete them more efficiently and cost-effectively than humans is expected to significantly accelerate development timelines.