TLDR Tech / Crypto
Agentic Payments Are Coming, But Not Yet
Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi takes the most bearish stance among crypto leaders quoted in a recent Forbes piece on agentic payments, arguing that current agents are too unreliable for autonomous money management because they operate on tasks outside their training distribution. x402 processing around $1M/day in volume, with multi-party payment protocols seeing lower throughput, confirms the ecosystem remains in a tinkerer phase with no meaningful commercial deployment. RL fine-tuning on agentic task traces is the primary performance catalyst, and major labs hold large volumes of interaction data from tools like OpenClaw but have not yet applied it to specialized model training. He maps the adoption timeline to a standard diffusion curve: next-generation models expected within months will close the tinkering era, while the early majority phase remains years away.
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